By Kevin B. Korb

Because the energy of Bayesian thoughts has turn into extra totally learned, the sector of man-made intelligence has embraced Bayesian method and built-in it to the purpose the place an creation to Bayesian ideas is now a center path in lots of machine technological know-how courses. in contrast to different books at the topic, Bayesian synthetic Intelligence retains mathematical aspect to a minimal and covers a extensive diversity of subject matters. The authors combine all of Bayesian web expertise and studying Bayesian web know-how and practice them either to wisdom engineering. They emphasize realizing and instinct but in addition give you the algorithms and technical historical past wanted for functions. software program, routines, and suggestions can be found at the authors’ site.

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Example text

It seems that very few people confronted with such problems bother to pull out pen and paper and compute the right answer via Bayes’ theorem; even fewer can get the right answer without pen and paper. , 90%) dominates things, so they figure that they have quite a high chance of having cancer. 9 — is only one term on the right hand side; the other crucial term is the prior probability of cancer. Cognitive psychologists studying such reasoning have dubbed the dominance of likelihoods in such scenarios “base-rate neglect,” since the base rate (prior probability) is being suppressed [137].

The second set of numbers shows what happens if the smoking rate in the population increases from 30% to 50%, as represented by a change in the prior for the Smoker node. Note that, since the Ì µ ¼ ¿ versus two cases differ only in the prior probability of smoking (È ´Ë È ´Ë Ì µ ¼ ), when the evidence itself is about the patient being a smoker, then the prior becomes irrelevant and both networks give the same numbers. 650 1 Belief updating can be done using a number of exact and approximate inference algorithms.

Initially, according to the model, these two causes are independent of each other; that is, a patient smoking (or not) does not change the probability of the patient being subject to pollution. Suppose, however, that we learn that Mr. Smith has cancer. This will raise our probability for both possible causes of cancer, increasing the chances both that he is a smoker and that he has been exposed to pollution. Suppose then that we discover that he is a smoker. This new information explains the observed cancer, which in turn lowers the probability that he has been exposed to high levels of pollution.

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